Took it on the chin last week in the colleges, going 0-3 -8.8%. I don't know if I'll win this week or this month, but by season's end, I fully expect to be in the plus column.
For Thursday:
S. Mississippi -2.5 UAB 39.5
UAB defeated Baylor last week, 24-19. They won the game in the last minute with an 80 yard drive on two plays, the last play being a 50 yard touchdown pass. The problem for UAB last year was their defense, which allowed 7.6 yards per pass to teams averaging just 6.5 yards per pass (yps). Last week against Baylor, they held their own, allowing Baylor to throw for 227 yards at only 6.0 yps. Baylor was an average team throwing the ball last year, passing for 6.7 yps against teams allowing 6.7 yps. I don't expect S. Miss. to be any better throwing the ball. S. Miss. did torch UAB last year for 223 yards at 11.2 yps. But, overall last year, S. Miss. only averaged 6.2 yps against teams allowing 6.5 yps and they only passed for 212 yards last week at 6.2 yps against California. UAB hasn't stopped the run much either and they allowed Baylor to run for 166 yards at 4.5 ypr last week. Baylor was not a good running team last year so it's probably obvious UAB is still having some problems stopping the run. But, fortunately for UAB, S. Miss. doesn't run the ball well. They gained just 65 yards at 1.8 ypr last week and last year UAB held them to 101 yards at 2.3 ypr. QB Darrell Hackney took over after the fourth game last year and UAB went from averaging 4.3 yps to 7.2 yps. As a freshman, he grew up and played well, and last week he passed for 254 yards at 8.2 yps. It should also be noted he missed part of that game with a knee injury but came back in to drive UAB to their final score. UAB held their own in the running game last week, averaging 4.3 ypr on 149 yards rushing and freshman Bo Moncur could be very good. I don't expect UAB to do too much damage against a very good S. Miss. defense but S. Miss. did allow Cal to rush for 260 yards at 5.4 ypr and pass for 157 yards at 8.7 yps. UAB has athleticism at the qb position, which should help against a very good S. Miss. defense. UAB qualifies in some very good situations this week, including a returning starter situation, which is now 88-38-3 after going 0-2 last week. They also qualify in a 43-16-1 home dog returning starter situation and a 58-29-2 home dog returning starter situation. S. Miss. head coach Jeff Bower is now just 12-18-1 as a road favorite and 8-13-0 as a road favorite of less than 10 points. He is also 0-1-1 at UAB as a road favorite. UAB head coach Watson Brown is now 8-1 as a home dog at UAB, including 7-0 as a conference home dog and 5-0 if his team played on the road last week. I don't expect this game to be easy and S. Miss. does own the better team, overall. But, I know from past experience, to simply play the strong situations when they pop and let the dust settle where it may.
YTD 0-3 -8.80%
3% UAB +2.5
For Thursday:
S. Mississippi -2.5 UAB 39.5
UAB defeated Baylor last week, 24-19. They won the game in the last minute with an 80 yard drive on two plays, the last play being a 50 yard touchdown pass. The problem for UAB last year was their defense, which allowed 7.6 yards per pass to teams averaging just 6.5 yards per pass (yps). Last week against Baylor, they held their own, allowing Baylor to throw for 227 yards at only 6.0 yps. Baylor was an average team throwing the ball last year, passing for 6.7 yps against teams allowing 6.7 yps. I don't expect S. Miss. to be any better throwing the ball. S. Miss. did torch UAB last year for 223 yards at 11.2 yps. But, overall last year, S. Miss. only averaged 6.2 yps against teams allowing 6.5 yps and they only passed for 212 yards last week at 6.2 yps against California. UAB hasn't stopped the run much either and they allowed Baylor to run for 166 yards at 4.5 ypr last week. Baylor was not a good running team last year so it's probably obvious UAB is still having some problems stopping the run. But, fortunately for UAB, S. Miss. doesn't run the ball well. They gained just 65 yards at 1.8 ypr last week and last year UAB held them to 101 yards at 2.3 ypr. QB Darrell Hackney took over after the fourth game last year and UAB went from averaging 4.3 yps to 7.2 yps. As a freshman, he grew up and played well, and last week he passed for 254 yards at 8.2 yps. It should also be noted he missed part of that game with a knee injury but came back in to drive UAB to their final score. UAB held their own in the running game last week, averaging 4.3 ypr on 149 yards rushing and freshman Bo Moncur could be very good. I don't expect UAB to do too much damage against a very good S. Miss. defense but S. Miss. did allow Cal to rush for 260 yards at 5.4 ypr and pass for 157 yards at 8.7 yps. UAB has athleticism at the qb position, which should help against a very good S. Miss. defense. UAB qualifies in some very good situations this week, including a returning starter situation, which is now 88-38-3 after going 0-2 last week. They also qualify in a 43-16-1 home dog returning starter situation and a 58-29-2 home dog returning starter situation. S. Miss. head coach Jeff Bower is now just 12-18-1 as a road favorite and 8-13-0 as a road favorite of less than 10 points. He is also 0-1-1 at UAB as a road favorite. UAB head coach Watson Brown is now 8-1 as a home dog at UAB, including 7-0 as a conference home dog and 5-0 if his team played on the road last week. I don't expect this game to be easy and S. Miss. does own the better team, overall. But, I know from past experience, to simply play the strong situations when they pop and let the dust settle where it may.
YTD 0-3 -8.80%
3% UAB +2.5
